The Department for Education has admitted that it does not know how many children who currently receive free school meals will lose out under planned eligibility changes.

Under the plan, eligibility will be expanded to all children in households that receive universal credit.

The changes, unveiled by the government in early June, were described as a “giant step” that would benefit more than half a million young people.

But, for the past seven years, transitional protections have been in place to ensure that pupils who gained FSM eligibility would not lose it while universal credit was adopted.

It was unclear whether the 500,000 set to benefit from the change in policy would include those already receiving transitional protections.

Tes has now established that the DfE does not even hold internal data on the number of pupils currently receiving transitional protections, meaning it cannot say how many of those will lose - and then potentially regain - FSM under the new system.

FSM campaigner Andy Jolley said this admission “raises questions about the impact the changes will have on child poverty” and would fuel concern that “ministers are essentially flying in the dark”.

Free school meals data ‘not held’

Under freedom of information laws, Tes asked the DfE to provide the number of pupils who received FSM in 2024-25 through the transitional protections, and the number of those estimated to lose eligibility after the changes kick in from September 2026.

The DfE responded that the information “is not held by this department”.

This, it said, is because it lacks “a formal estimate of the number of children covered by transitional protections”.

The DfE added that data held on pupils eligible for FSM through school census records is based on whether, not why, they are eligible, meaning that “children eligible due to transitional protections cannot be distinguished”.

Mr Jolley said this raised the question of whether fewer, not more, pupils would be eligible for FSM in future.

“It’s possible we will see a significant drop in FSM eligibility in 2027,” he said, adding: “It’s important to remember this is a poisoned chalice left for Labour to sort out by the Conservatives.”

Tes also asked the DfE how many pupils losing transitional protections were included in the 500,000 said to be gaining FSM under the expanded criteria.

In response, the DfE only said it had not published any data on this, but insisted that its 500,000 figure is accurate.

However, Dr Tammy Campbell, director for early years, inequalities and wellbeing at the Education Policy Institute, previously said it was difficult to know the exact net benefit of the eligibility expansion announced by the government.

Tes’ FOI request response means there is “continued uncertainty” over how many pupils will lose or gain FSM status under the 2026 changes, while further “critical questions remain unanswered” around the pupil premium, she said.

Under current plans, the link between FSM status and pupil premium funding for schools has been frozen at the current eligibility level.

Another headline figure presented in the DfE announcement of FSM expansion was that the policy would lift 100,000 out of poverty.

The underlying estimate shows that this will not be until 2030 and the analysis also made it clear that it “does not account for transitional protections for FSM… [which] mean[s] some of the children gaining from the measure are in practice already currently receiving FSM”.

Some pupils who are transitionally protected may, therefore, be included in the 100,000. The DfE has not confirmed how many this would apply to, but the analysis states it is expected to have “minimal” impact on its poverty pledge.

No recent assessment of take-up gap

Separately, it has emerged that it has been 12 years since the government formally assessed the number of eligible children who are not taking up FSM.

Education minister Stephen Morgan admitted this in response to a parliamentary question in January from Liberal Democrat education spokesperson Munira Wilson.

Julia Harnden, deputy director of policy at the Association of School and College Leaders, said that the expansion of FSM was “strongly welcome”, but added that “it’s important that work is now done to ensure this policy is implemented successfully, including by understanding the impact of transitional protections being phased out”.

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